Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
